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KENTON H JOHNSON PREDICTIONS - PAST and PRESENT - January 3, 2016

Latest at Predictions.KentonHJohnson.com

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Once in a while, I'm given a glimpse 2-5 years into the future when it comes to business, technology, real estate and social movement ... on the bleeding edge:

 

·   Future urban traffic signals will be like the computerized San Jose Traffic Control Project (SJTCP, 1967), with detector reliability a major problem - detector reliability still a problem (1988) but many coming to fruition (2000’s)

·   Use Operations Research techniques to optimize vehicle routing (1971) - confirmed (1975)

·   Computer use for lab assignment computations (San Jose State University, 1968) – witnessed general use at University of Colorado (1976)

·   Personal Rapid Transit (PRT- paper on Santa Clara County CA transportation, 1971) – Denver Metro’s RTD created a plan for PRT system (1972) and residents voted for a sales tax of 1/2% over the six counties … 80% were earmarked for PRT construction (1973) … unfortunately scrapped (probably as internally planned) - Growth (1975)

·   Multi-type-criteria decision analysis (thesis, 1970-1973)

·   First Colorado chapter of Association for Computing Machinery's Special Interest Group for Scientific Computing (SIGSCI, 1977)

·   Adapting modified cricket bowling for baseball pitching (Littleton youth league, 1977) - not adopted, but research on the dangers of baseball-type pitching, especially for youth, has come out this Century strongly in favor of alternatives.

·   PCs for engineering firms (3 years before IBM's PC; CCC 1978; international newsletter, ECAN 1979)

·   True cost of PCs – 8-10% of hardware cost per month (ECAN, 1980) – well-documented by Intel (2010)

·   Understanding (via familiar calculators) and buying PCs (seminars, books, articles, 1981)

·   Using spreadsheets (VisiCalc, Lotus then Excel) for contact databases and heavy computing applications, as well as sell personal computers - engineering clients loved the control and power (ECAN, 1979-1985) - confirmed for databases (1983), heavy computing applications (1983), and selling PCs (1983)

·   Tablet-sized laptops will be popular for speeches, remote reporting via telephone modem as well as general applications (started using TRS-100, $1200, 1983) - confirmed (1986)

·   Geeks (vs jocks) rule the free world (lectures, 1985) - confirmed (1998)

·   Software marketing via limited trial version (QuickSurf, disks, 1986)

·   CrowdFunding for startup capital (raised $1200 in 2 weeks, in $50, 6-month loans, for business colloquium/networking event, 1992) - pre-cursor to Fund Busting (1995) and KickStarter (2009)

·   Mini-resume index card for large networking events (Income Builders Int'l, 1992) - appeared in volume (2000)

·   Need for self-esteem reinforcement AV for children - (teamed with experts Lee Poulos and Jack Canfield to help develop and promote, 1993) - appeared later in the decade and beyond (1996)

·   Licensed-registered-certified-referral-only wellness network to reduce healthcare costs and improve/save lives (CompWellness:  books, 1996; helping bi-partisan Colorado Alternative Medicine bill pass, 1997; holistic first aid for Y2K, 1998; 24/7 800 hotline to ensure holistic care availability, 1998; first national, professional website, 1999) - confirmed and emulated (2000-)

·   Google beating Yahoo (1998) - confirmed (2005)

·   Content-based search engine optimization (Google Rank 0 to 4 in 12 months, CompWellness.net, 2000)

·   Scalable webpages (work on several-sized screens and devices; CompWellness.net and personal/client webpages, 2000) - strongly confirmed (2002)

·   Personal domain names for resume, permanent email address and web presence (KentonJohnson.com, 2000) - confirmed (2002)

·   Online brochures that are faxable and printable on letter paper or 2-sided cards (SitesCW.KentonHJohnson.com and Experience.KentonHJohnson.com, 2000) - confirmed (2006)

·   Computer / mobile skills necessary to survive in business or as skilled worker (2000) - confirmed (2003)

·   Holistic homecare for the elderly to extend enjoyable life and greatly reduce costs (mother and CompWellness team, 2004) - confirmed (2008)

·   Executive collaborative networking versus selling each other's connections (Collaborator.PSKHJ.com, 2004) - confirmed (2006)

·   Web 2.0 marketing (Great Offer, Get Information Today, Market-Market-Market gently - 9:1 info:promo ratio) for the everyman (GOgitMMM™ Report, 2005) - confirmed (2007)

·   Abundant use of free sub-domains to organize and enter websites for 100s of pages of authored or referenced webpages (PersonalLinks.KentonHJohnson.com, 2005) - confirmed (2007)

·   Residential real estate bubble crash (divested all holdings, 2006) - confirmed (2008)

·   Continuously-running pictures - personal, business, stock - as screen savers on all computers in normal surroundings to stimulate memory and brain integration (for mother and family, 2004) - confirmed (2007)

·   Currency trading government interference (FxBetter.biz, 2007) - confirmed (2009)

·   ObamaCare will be shoved through Congress with little attention to healthcare, wellness, prevention or the people it was supposedly protecting (late 2008) - confirmed (2013)

·   Computer-web-mobile-cloud integration (ConsultComm.PSKHJ.com, 2008; in full play on ITCapabilities-2D21C.ProsperSystems.biz, 2012)

·   Consulting for equity - Consultant, Advisor, Director or Management Team for startups or operating companies (Sales.ProsperSystems.biz, 2009) - confirmed (2011)

·   Eco-friendly mineral processing will dominate future mining (nanotechnologies, 2010) - confirmed (2013)

·   7" tablet preference to 8-10" (fits inside jacket pockets better - usually only 5" wide - 2010) - 7” popularity exceeds 10” (late 2013) - jury out on 7" vs 8"

·   Collaboration is the key to success for this decade (Blog.ProsperSystems.biz - Collaboration Network, 2011) – appearing more and more in business media, including Huffington Post (2013)

·   Nouveau, highly-graphic resumes (KentonHJohnson.com. 2005) - confirmed (2011)

·   Corporate online resumes combining all the management team (Resume.ProsperSystems.biz, 2013)

 

2013 Predictions:

 

·   Google forcing users to join Google+ to obtain certain Google services creates a backlash. (May 2013) - confirmed (Jan 2014)

·   As surviving retailers do to become the Go-To Place for all activity in their venues, bookstores become search, sale, delivery and review centers for new, used, specialized and rare print and electronic books and periodicals, guiding boomers and other technically-challenged customers, as well as offering other media-related services and products (May 2013)

·   Professionally-shot CD/DVDs for museums, zoos, tourist attractions with profitable traffic – to raise money and create high-quality memories/documentation (Oct 2013)

·   Surround, four-wall video centers for like-you-are-there travel, events, meetings, sales showings (Oct 2013)

 

2014 Predictions:

 

·   Vertical-Axis Wind Turbines (VAWT) will overtake typical Horizontal-Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) in new installations around the world in terms of watt-hours produced due to adaptability (size, location, form), smaller ground and height footprint, safer for humans and flying animals, weight distribution, life-cycle costs, and eventually, efficiency (Jan 2014)

 

2015 Predictions:

 

·   Drone Service Companies - contract and Uber-like - will start up all over the world for:  surveying remote and large/tall properties; custom package delivery; aerial shots; inspecting difficult places to reach; with video and thermal/molecule-detection; and more; for individuals, small- and even medium-sized organizations.   (Jan 2015) – contract services confirmed (Mid 2015)

·   On-Call On-Site Video-Conference Professionals - for interactive business meetings, conferences, trade shows or high-value shopping – Uber-like service to show up, set up high-quality audio and video, ensure a strong internet connection, record, tear down the perhaps edit the recording for re-broadcast.  Allows “being there” in one (perhaps more) distant places in a short timeframe, such as meetings in several places around the country or world .  Avoids technical problems encountered by business people unfamiliar with all the aspects of high-quality online audio-video production.  (May 2015)

 

2016 Predictions:

 

·   Online public voting and virtual video-based legislatures will come to pass, allowing full participation by voters and their representatives at all levels of government, with cross-over for fast, public polling.  Allows representatives to be physically "with the people" in their venue but be available for each committee and floor vote. (Jan 2016)